They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. Were a service industry-oriented area. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. Soon, he lost his union membership because he had no money to pay the dues. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. As part of The Epoch Times Association, Inc., a nonprofit organization we stand outside of political interests and the pursuit of profit, to educate readers about today's most critical issues . Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. I am under that impression. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. I kind of keep in my bubble. He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. About The Author. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. What Should Fiscal and Social Policy in a Sustainable Economy Look Like? Its just not that great, Paul said. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . Data de l'entrada martin county clerk of court jobs; whats wrong secretary kim dramawiki . A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. Im not happy with either party. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. Westmoreland is the only one of the counties in the South, Clallam is the only one on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Its too big. Im looking at both sides of it. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. Right now, its horrible. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Theres too much mishandling, she said. I tend to vote my morals, Myers told The Epoch Times. It was easy. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. We need to make ourselves energy independent again. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. Instead of guns and bullets, hes bringing our troops home, hes ending wars. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. Blaine County. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. With all the inflation, its challenging, and can be tricky to run a business, Miller, 58, said. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. They run the gamut from. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. Epoch Times Canada (@EpochTimesCan) November 16, 2020. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. But according to the. He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. We were as far down to five cooks last year. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either. Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Weve always had a mix of voters, Baumgardner added. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. She thinks economic distress from COVID-19 will fuel more unrest. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. I think its very political right now, honestly. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. That is, until this year. Hes pleased with the last twoBrett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrettby Trump. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! Theyre scared. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. Former President Trump and his supporters continue to loudly assert that he really won the 2020 election even though all the alleged direct evidence of fraud has not passed the sniff test of local courts, including those with Republican judges. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties, they said. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. When he became a Christian, he struggled with his unions blind support for Democratic candidates, most of whom arent pro-life, he said. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. We need creative leadership, Miller said. We have become so divided. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. Its gone, Jacobs said. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. I think all politicians are crooks. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. I think it worked out without me.. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. The bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large swath of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area in particular appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd stands in front of her daughters house in Seelyvilee, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. He pissed off a lot of people. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. I find that hard to believe. For example, a county might be said to be a "bellwether county" if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. With respect to the notion that bellwethers are demographically representative, this appears not to true. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. His morals also include being honest, and he is bothered by what he sees as lies coming from both candidates. Theres significant variability among them, though. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. Jim Hoft. I dont think you should take that away from me.. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. Jacobs, 58, a gift store manager in Ridgway, said she voted for Obama but didnt follow politics closely at the time. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. But theyre happy with that and theyre proud of what they created. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984.